Misc. Mental Musings

Vac . . . scene!

S. G. Lacey

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The Timestamp:

This article was fact checked and posted on Monday, March 29th, just over a year after COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization.  The most current available information is presented, but the material covered, like the virus itself, and ongoing vaccine efforts, are dynamically changing.   

 

The Thesis:

On the morning of December 7th, 2020, the first human, a 90-year-old woman from the United Kingdom, was administered with an approved COVID-19 vaccine. 

 

The treatment was developed as a collaboration between US-based Pfizer and German-based BioNTech, taking just 9 months from the time the SARS-CoV-2 genome was sequenced.  This was by far the fastest vaccine development and approval timeline in history. [REF] 

 

This medical breakthrough was just the first step down a long road to get every person on the planet fully vaccinated, in an effort to end the coronavirus pandemic.  To return to the uninhibited worldwide travel of the early 21st century, it will be necessary to inoculate essentially the entire global population. 

 

The complexity of this initiative, navigating numerous challenges, both known and unknown, will require historic worldwide coordination for success. 

 

The Trends:

There are currently almost 8 billion humans living on Planet Earth, with another 200 thousand net individuals added daily.  Thus far, over 125 million people, over 1.5% of the world’s population, has been infected with COVID-19, with the death toll approaching 3 million to date. [REF] 

 

Some countries have been successful at stifling the virus infection spread, like Cambodia, Vietnam, and China, while others have not, like Czechia, Brazil, and the United States.  Each continent, country, province, state, and even town, has implemented their own mitigation protocols, with varying degrees of effectiveness. 

 

Complete lockdown, social distancing mandates, natural herd immunity, testing and tracing, focused business closures; every strategy has been tried.  Considering the multiple waves of infection experienced around the globe, a long-lasting, effective vaccine, offers the best opportunity for a full return to normalcy.   

 

The Task:

Starting at the end of 2020, COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out en masse. 

 

En masse is relative, considering the initial injection distribution was tiny, from both a location, and volume, standpoint.  The world recently crossed the 500 million dose mark, across 140 countries, which is sufficient to cover over 3% of the global population, assuming a 2-shot vaccine. [REF]  

 

Israel is the nation leading the charge currently, having already fully vaccinated over half of its entire population.  Israel has utilized their plentiful financial resources, and centralized healthcare system, to execute an organized, thorough, inoculation campaign.  This region will be a valuable case study for what to expect in terms of quelling the pandemic’s spread as immunization becomes more widespread globally.

 

Several major countries have been very proactive with vaccine rollouts.  The United Kingdom, U.A.E., Chile, and the United States all have vaccination rates above 20% of their population.  China and India are also near the top of the list in terms of total shots administered, however their much larger populations will require continued coordination to inoculate all their citizens.

 

Currently, over a dozen vaccine formulations are approved by various health agencies around the world.  Most countries are using a mix-and-match approach, taking whatever allotments they can get from drug companies, in an effort to ensure enough shots can be secured for their entire population. 

 

Each nation is initiating their own hierarchy for vaccination prioritization: focusing on the at-risk elderly, protecting critical health care workers, or supporting educators to get children back to school, and their fatigued parents back to work.

 

There is no general consensus vaccine protocol strategy.  Which makes sense, considering this rollout decision relies on some complicated, region-specific, inputs.  Most challenging is placing a value on a human life, in both current, and future, currency.

 

The Technology:

Vaccine development and administration has been part of human development for centuries.  However, never before have the efforts been this coordinated, and this rapid.

 

Smallpox is the only disease to date that humanity has successfully eradicated via immunization.  This sickness dates back over a millennium to China and India.  The 17th century saw the first scientific push for inoculation, however smallpox outbreaks continued to be a frequent occurrence in society over the next several hundred years.  While the first effective smallpox vaccine was developed in 1796, it wasn’t until the 1980’s that smallpox was declared to be eliminated globally.

 

Historically, vaccines require years, and sometimes decades, to develop, test, and approve, with multiple stages of mandated clinical trials to determine efficacy, and check for adverse side effects.  However, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused scientists to rethink the rate at which vaccines can be developed, and administered.

 

There are four types of vaccines being created to combat the SARS-CoV-2 virus: DNA, mRNA, viral vector, and protein-based.  In all cases, the goal is to introduce the virus’s genetic information and communicate the risk of this foreign entity, thus inciting the body’s natural immune system response. 

 

The easiest approach, utilized by the Chinese Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines, is to incorporate a deactivated version of the entire virus DNA into the patient.  Since the pathogen is disabled, it cannot replicate in the host, but does still trigger an immune response.  This process has been used in the past for hepatitis A and polio vaccines, so is a proven approach.

 

Both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines utilize messenger RNA technology.  This is the first time mRNA has been successfully applied to generate a vaccine, but the methodology has been researched for years.  Instead of introducing the virus to the patient directly, the mRNA instructs the body’s cells how to create antigens, which are then recognized and attacked by the immune system.    

 

The most popular vaccine approach, utilized by AstraZeneca/Oxford, Johnson & Johnson, Russia’s Sputnik V, and CanSino from China, incorporates a harmless virus which is engineered to carry the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, thereby initiating the body’s immune response to fight the intruder.  This methodology worked well for combating ebola, and should offer a robust vaccine. 

 

A final technique is to use purified protein pieces of the pathogen, rather than the entire virus chain.  There are no currently approved vaccines using this method, but the Novavax offering is in later stage clinical trials.  Having been used for Hepatitis B and shingles vaccines in the past, this is another established technology. [REF]

 

The main tradeoffs between the various types of vaccines are the efficacy level, ease of transport, production cost, and number of doses required.  Since we don’t yet have a single treatment which checks all these boxes perfectly, scientists are continuing their formulation and testing efforts.

 

Vaccines are being developed all over the world, and there are still several additional candidates being verified.  This has been a truly global collaboration between scientists and biopharma companies.  Each country has its own medical requirements, so there’s an opportunity for bilateral deals between nations with similar regulations and standards.

 

The Technique:

Coming up with a brand-new vaccine is one thing.  Producing it at scale, potentially needing more than 15 billion doses worldwide, is a whole different challenge. 

 

Obviously, nearly every medical facility in the world is on board to help with this effort.  However, there will be trade-offs, as manufacturing of many other important drugs may be pushed out, since vaccine production is typically a small component of the massive pharmaceutical industry.

 

Traditional vaccine creation, curating the actual virus in deactivated form, is time consuming.  Manufacturing takes up to 60 days to grow the required cells, then 2 more weeks to verify effectiveness.  The viral vector and protein approaches require additional processing steps to ensure the correct generic material has been isolated. 

 

One of the main benefits off the mRNA approach is that it allows vaccines to be developed and produced much quicker, potentially in just 2 days at scale, since mRNA is formulated synthetically, and living cells don’t need to be used.  However, since this is a new technique, there are not many facilities with the necessary equipment, or skilled staff, to produce mRNA-based drugs.

 

Pfizer was targeting production of 100 million doses globally by end of 2020.  Unfortunately, due to production challenges, they revised this estimate down to 50 million at the beginning of December 2020.  In the early months of 2021, the pace of global vaccine production has ramped up rapidly, with 400 million doses produced through February, and feasibility for 10 billion vials by the end of the year. [REF]

 

Regardless of the vaccine approach, the transition from lab to commercial scale takes time.  Many companies with failed treatments have shifted their production resources to making one of the approved formulations.  In many cases, pharmaceutical firms who are direct competitors are now collaborating to satisfy the massive global vaccine needs.  Firms are even sharing their intellectual property, something previously unheard of in the biotech space.

 

In addition to materials and processes needed to execute the vaccine chemistry itself, there are a lot of ancillary products required for this unprecedented scale-up.  Glass vials, dry ice, surgical tubing, hermetically sealed packaging.  All these items are now required at a scale never before conceived.  Plus, there will need to be a sufficient availability of health care workers, and other trained personnel, to administer the shots safely.

 

The Transportation:

Logistics.  Trade.  Airplanes.  Tariffs.  Globalization.  There’s no shortage of challenges which can hinder the worldwide vaccine distribution.

 

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, the first to be approved, requires the most extreme handling treatment.  Consider the efforts needed to execute the following mandated, ultra-cold chain, storage protocols. 

 

Once manufactured, the vials are packed with dry ice, and must be held below -70°C.  Upon receipt at the hospital, the vaccine needs to be thawed in a traditional freezer at -8°C for 24 hours.  The thawed vials are reconstituted using saline dilution, then only have a 6-hour shelf life at fridge or room temperature.  Dry ice sublimates, so is a logistical challenge, and super low temperature freezers are rare.

 

From a packaging standpoint, the concentrated vaccine is placed into glass vials, initially planned at 5 doses per vial, which are now being stretched to 6 doses.  195 vials are packed into each white plastic tray.  5 trays, representing over 5k doses, are then loaded in a custom suitcase with dry ice; this packaging lasts for up to 10 days.  Once thawed, the vials can be stored in a normal freezer for up to 5 days. [REF]

 

Such complex cold chain logistics are not feasible in remote, rural areas, so other options will be needed for establishing global herd immunity.  Due to difficult handling conditions, these drugs likely can’t be administered directly at nursing homes, schools, or office buildings.

 

Fortunately, many of the other vaccines candidates which have been developed and approved are much easier to handle.  They can be transported and stored with the existing health care supply chain, using standard refrigerated trucks and hospital freezers.

 

The transport planning efforts required to vaccinate the entire globe is massive.  Projections show that 850 tons of vaccine per month will need to be moved through the end of 2021, and likely beyond.  Typically, medical products are shipped in the cargo holds of passenger jets, but with travel drastically curbed, and new lockdowns pending, traditional shipping capacity could be limited.

 

The Testing:

COVID-19 testing has been a very contentious subject, not just in the United States, but throughout the world.  There is no doubt that countries which have handled pandemic spread the best, have effectively used extensive testing and tracing, however the exact techniques vary.

 

PCR is the gold standard for COVID-19 testing, with almost no false positives, or missed cases.  This is the test most of you are familiar with, where the swap is stuffed deep up your nose, then you are informed of the results in a day or two.  Since this test checks for the specific RNA material associated with the virus, it works well even if the subject is asymptomatic, or has recently contracted the disease.

 

The other option is an antigen test.  This assay checks for proteins associated with the SARS-CoV-2 virus strain.  Though not as reliable as a PCR test, results can be attained in an hour or less.  Antigen tests are most reliable on subjects who are exhibiting symptoms, but can have a high false negative rate, which is very detrimental to stopping spread of the disease. [REF]

 

Having an instant, 100% accurate, COVID-19 test would be the ideal scenario.  However, the best current technologies have a 15-minute processing time, but only 50% accuracy.  This method does seem to catch the patients with the highest viral loads; these individuals present the highest risk of additional spreading.  As a result, rapid, large scale antigen testing could be useful for monitoring people at critical services like schools and government services.

 

From a vaccine testing standpoint, in Phase 3 clinical trials, both the mRNA vaccines exhibited efficacy approaching 95%, which is very promising.  Assuming proper production, handling, and administration of these mRNA vaccines, they should be effective across a broad swath of the population. 

 

While efficacy was lower for the J&J treatment at under 70%, these trials included data from patients affected by several of the COVID-19 variants floating around, and still looked effective at mitigating severe illness.

 

China (Sinopharm, Sinvac, CanSino) and Russia (Sputnik V) began distribution of their vaccines before completing large scale clinical trials, but have subsequently executed these tests in parallel to the early rollouts.  The Chinese vaccines are now being distributed to over 40 countries globally for use.

 

Currently, there are no vaccines approved for individuals under age 18.  While the data supports the fact that kids and teenagers are less likely to contract COVID-19, and have a very low probability of contracting a severe case, to promote global herd immunity, children will need to be immunized eventually. 

 

The Timeline:

There’s a lot of details to consider when estimating a vaccine timeline.  Research, testing, approval, manufacturing, distribution, acceptance.  Each link must be closed and solid, to create a chain strong enough to pull humanity out of this medical malaise.

 

Most countries are taking care of their most at-risk citizens first, which should help to bring the death toll down.  However, a return to normalcy, from a societal, economic, and even physical standpoint, will require a broadly distributed cure, combined with ongoing mitigation against variants.

 

Each nation, region, city, and even hospital is utilizing their own vaccine rollout plan, which makes the system very disjointed.  In many cases, it’s unclear who is eligible to get the treatment, and when or where the shots are being administered.  Some localities are using online methods to disseminate information, and help individuals plan their appointments.

 

For the dual shot vaccines, there’s potential to provide a half versus full dose, executing only one shot instead of two.  This technique increases the amount of people that could be vaccinated, but brings the efficacy into question, since this method deviates from the protocols used in Phase 3 clinical trials.  Also, delaying the second booster shot could help inoculate more people quickly, but may increase the chance for a viral mutation. [REF]

 

It’s still unknown if the vaccines limit transmission, as opposed to simply providing individual protection.  This characteristic is critical for herd immunity, especially with regards to asymptomatic carriers.

 

Per scientist recommendations, it takes roughly two weeks after the second shot is administered to build up full immunity.  After this point, the CDC has issued guidance allowing maskless interaction with other vaccinated individuals.  Slowly but surely, we’re making progress. 

 

The Tally:

Currently, nearly 15 million humans are being vaccinated daily worldwide. Research suggests that global vaccination rates above 70%, and preferably over 85%, are necessary to achieve complete herd immunity.  At this present rate, it will still take several years to vaccinate the necessary percentage of the globe’s occupants.

 

To date in the United States, over 50 million people have been fully vaccinated, with roughly the same amount having received the first of their two required shots.  At this vaccine administration pace of 2.5 million doses per day in the U.S., the target value of 75% inoculation is achievable in just 5 months’ time. [REF]

 

President Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” vaccine development mandate, combined with President Biden’s “100 in 100” nationalized vaccine rollout plan, has the United States faring well relative to the world at large.  Granted, these efforts have come with a 40-billion-dollar plus price tag, a luxury not afforded to many countries globally.

 

For the few nations who have vaccinated over 25% of their population, new COVID-19 infections have dropped significantly, suggesting the effectiveness of this inoculation to curb spread of the virus.

 

The recently approved Johnson and Johnson vaccine is a single shot, which significantly simplifies the logistics associated with injection.  Production of the J&J offering is ramping up quickly, with the plan being to use this drug to treat people who it may be difficult to lure back for their second shot, or in regions where cold storage capabilities are limited.

 

The Titans:

Unfortunately, this pandemic has highlighted many of the inequalities that exist throughout humanity.  Rich vs. poor.  Developed vs. emerging.  Privileged vs. impoverished.  The list goes on.

 

To date, most vaccine development and distribution has been government funded, so the cost of the medicine is not a concern for average citizens.  Governments around the world have poured over 100 billion dollars into vaccine procurement, hoping to place bets on the winning horse in the drug approval race, or simply hedging their bets by backing the entire field of pharmaceutical companies.

 

The most obvious example of this inequity is related to governmental financial clout.  At the end of 2020, nearly all the planned vaccine production for the globe had been purchased.  The wealthiest nations, who account for just 15% of the world’s population, have already reserved over half of the vials scheduled to be manufactured in 2021. 

 

Some countries, with the monetary means, have taken this reservation scheme to the extreme.  Canada has secured vaccines equivalent to 5 times their population.  England can treat their citizens 3 times over.  And the United States has already put a down payment on two full doses for every American. [REF]

 

The Tiny:

Who’s speaking up for the little fellow; the countries getting left behind in this vaccine bidding war.  As it turns out, quite a few groups are stepping up.

 

COVAX, a collaboration of nearly 200 countries, hopes to secure 2 billion doses, from a total of 9 vaccine manufacturers, by the end of 2021.  Unfortunately, this amount still only represents enough medicine for 20% of the population in these aligned, needy, nations. 

 

This consortium, combining humanitarian organizations with an alphabet soup of acronyms, GAVI, WHO, SEPI, and VA, hopes deliver treatment to 90 of the most disadvantaged countries around the globe.  However, acquiring vaccines is just the first step in a challenging and complicated distribution effort. [REF]

 

Initially, major players like the United States, China, and most of Europe, did not join COVAX.  However, recent changes in administrative policy in these affluent regions has brought much needed monetary support, and public awareness, to this critical philanthropic effort.

 

Many of these underprivileged countries are severely lacking in terms of basic infrastructure and health care resources.  The complete cold chain required effectively makes the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines 1st world treatments.  In this respect, the AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, and Chinese vaccines are essential, as they will be easier to rollout and implement in these remote areas. 

 

Fortunately, various humanitarian organizations like Amnesty International and Global Justice Now are strongly advocating for fair and equitable vaccine distribution.  Still, challenges like intellectual property, development costs, and political posturing, are making equality difficult.

 

If the globe doesn’t work together, the vaccine protocols will not be effective, especially if SARS-CoV-2 requires annual, booster shot, injections.  Without effectively immunizing the citizens of every country, a full global economic recovery will be difficult.

 

The Tentative:

Everyone has heard the buzz about anti-vaxxers.  But how large is this cohort globally, and how will they influence the widespread inoculation efforts?

 

Generally, individuals not anxious to get vaccinated can be broken into two groups: those who are morally opposed to vaccinations in general, and those who are worried about the speed at which this specific COVID-19 treatment was developed.

 

Extensive polling has been conducted, primarily in developed countries, to assess public sentiment regarding the COVID-19 vaccine.

 

Based on a survey of U.K. citizens, 20% excited for the vaccine, 20% are hesitant but OK with treatment, 50% are undecided on inoculation, and 10% are extreme anti-vaxxers.  Another poll asked residents from 15 westernized nations if they would get the vaccine, provided it was available to them now.  Denmark had the highest affirmation rate at 68%, France the lowest at 40%.  The United States response showed 47% of those polled were ready to take the drugs immediately.

 

Per a survey of several of the most populous countries globally, the skeptical and anti-vaxxer contingent represents just over 10% of respondents, with demographics skewing older and lower income.  This study also revealed another swath of roughly 10%, who are obligated to get the vaccine for work or travel reasons, despite being hesitant about the treatment’s safety or effectiveness. [REF]

 

As a result, there needs to be a delicate balance related to government communication.  Publicizing vaccine counts could lead to further uproar from anti-vaxxers about administration conspiracy theories.  There’s also the potential lower level of trust from minorities with regards to forced inoculation.

 

For context, the CDC currently recommends that babies get protected against half a dozen common human ailments, a regiment which includes over 20 separate shots in the early years of life.  As a result, vaccinations are already a regular part of our healthy society.

 

The Threats:

As the vaccine rollout continues, more data becomes available on side effects of the medicine.  To date, aside from very low instances of anaphylaxis, a constriction of the throat, the only common post-vaccine symptoms are fatigue, headache, and muscle pain.  All these traits are associated with effective functioning of the body’s immune system to fight off the virus.

 

The AstraZeneca vaccine rollout was suspended briefly throughout Europe, due to concerns about blood clotting.  This situation will have an influence on the European summer holiday season, and potentially confidence about the AZ treatment with the general public.  The United States has not yet approved this drug, but is still holding its purchased inventory in reserve. [REF]

 

There has not been enough time to vet the influence of these new vaccines on pregnant women.  This would require at least 9 months of study, along with additional medical analysis after birth.  However, there is lots of scientific information which supports the fact that these vaccines don’t have any influence on fertility.

 

Lastly, there are numerous important religious considerations with vaccine application, like fasting for Ramadan, convincing those of Islamic faith that the vaccine doesn’t contain any animal products, and adhering to kosher protocols for the Jewish. 

 

To speed up the vaccine approvals, in many cases a stepped wedge trial approach has been used, with multiple human testing phases occurring in parallel.  This allows different cohorts of people to be clinically monitored, which can inform future inoculation strategies.  While increasing the speed of drug approval and shrinking the time to market, this is an unprecedented approach.   

 

The world is currently balancing the desire for rigorous, scientific testing, with the critical need to roll the vaccine out at scale rapidly.  Undoubtably, we will learn more about the efficacy and side effects of the various COVID-19 vaccines, in the months, and years, to come.

 

The Transformation:

Transmissible airborne viruses are highly susceptible to mutation; this is why it’s necessary to get an influenza flu shot every fall.

 

Since the discovery, and subsequent gene sequencing, of SARS-CoV-2, scientists have been closely monitoring the trajectory of the virus’s RNA.  A telling discovery occurred in the fall of 2020, when the mink strain was discovered in Denmark.  This demonstrated to the ability of the pathogen to transform to the point where it could transfer across species.

 

From a terminology standpoint, mutations to the genetic sequence are common with viruses, but a new variant becomes relevant, and “of concern”, if it has drastically different properties, like transmissibility, or mortality rate.  A strain, in the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, is the broadest category.  Discover of a new strain would present entirely new, unknown, challenges in this pandemic.

 

Currently, the most relevant variants of the coronavirus are the more transmissible version in the U.K. (B.1.1.7), the highly mutated variant from South Africa (B.1.351), and the seemingly vaccine resistant Brazilian type (P.1). 

 

Each of these increasing prevalent variants highlights the ability of this virus to mutate over time, shifting in transmissibility, fatality, and efficacy.  Even once herd immunity is achieved, this may not be the last time we hear from this disease. [REF]

 

Most of the mutations and variants discovered thus far appear to be handled sufficiently by the existing vaccines which have been developed.  Some companies, like Astra-Zeneca, are developing supplemental boosters that can be administered if necessary. 

 

After a natural infection, follow-up data shows that people have immunity for at least 6 months.  As a result, it appears the COVID-19 vaccine will need to be administered annually, like flu shots currently, but with more stringent enforcement, if dangerous variants are to be avoided in the future.

 

The Toll:

There is no doubt that COVID-19 has been a global health crisis over the past year.  Total deaths attributed to this novel coronavirus are over twice those of the entire the Vietnam War, and is well above the worst year ever documented during the peak of the AIDS epidemic. 

 

Aside from the physical toll associated with loss of life, there are numerous ancillary effects from the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

One major concern is the toll that lockdowns are having on human’s mental health.  Research shows increases is depression, alcoholism, and suicide across the demographic spectrum.  Younger people are drinking less, due to bar closures, but craving their weekly socialization.  Older folks are drinking more, from the comforts of their own home, but stressing about the future of their livelihood and retirement savings. 

 

The unemployment numbers, and small business closures, as a result of mandated lockdowns, are truly staggering.  Many small countries globally rely on tourism as their primary economic driver; obviously such nations are severely impacted by the ongoing travel restrictions.  Also, the pandemic has caused women, minorities, and the elderly to dropping out of the workforce at an alarming rate, often as a result of family care demands, or forced layoffs.

 

Schooling is another major concern.  Toddlers are not getting the social interaction they need for visual and auditory learning, as every human they meet is wearing a mask, thus hiding key facial clues.   Meanwhile, an entire class of high school and college graduates did not get to celebrate their achievements in person with peers. [REF] 

 

In reality, the most likely risk is that the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have not been fully understood yet.  Only time will tell.    

 

The Trivia:

Indonesia is employing a unique vaccination strategy, inoculating their younger citizens first.  The goal is to focus on working age demographic, who is most likely to contract the disease, and most critical to the economy.  The thought is that this plan will prevent these individuals from getting sick, then bringing the disease back to older family members who live with them. 

 

Indonesia is the 4th most populous nation in the world, and has significant logistical challenges caused by the sprawling island geography, overcrowded infrastructure, a poor electrical grid, and high average temperatures. This alternative vaccination method brings creates an ethical dilemma due to the propensity of the elderly to die from COVID-19, but may be appropriate for countries with very young average populations. [REF]

 

For people over 80, they have a 1 in 10 chance of dying in the next year of natural causes.  These regular deaths could be construed as the virus running rampant, or the vaccine not working.  This information may be used as a source of propaganda for either camp moving forward.  In reality, really old humans just have a higher propensity to pass away.

 

Private purchasing of vaccines online is starting to become a thing.  Considering the anticipated vaccine shortages in many parts of the world, there will likely continue to be challenges with bootleg, fake vaccines, which represent 70% of black market.  Current going rates are around $500 per dose, with most of the transactions occurring using untraceable cryptocurrency payment platforms.  This underground market could further promote inequity with global vaccine accessibility.

 

There is an ongoing debate in the scientific community regarding how obesity influences death rates from COVID-19.  In many developed countries, like the U.S. and U.K., where older, overweight people make up a larger percentage of the population, per capita death rates are higher than emerging countries in Africa, with very young, fit, citizenry.  However, this data may be a classic example of correlation versus causation.

 

Various health organizations have confirmed that individuals can donate blood just 7 days after being vaccinated.  Fortunately, over the past year, no major impact on global blood supplies has been observed.  This can be attributed to people having more free time to donate, and the deferral of many elective surgeries, which require most of these fluids.

 

The . . . Trajectory:

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 is an unprecedented event.  Sure, virus outbreaks, and other global disasters, have occurred in the past.  However, never has the entire world been this connected, and thus this impacted, by a natural phenomenon.

 

Full vaccination is necessary to kick the global economy back into gear.  Projections estimate a 5% contraction in global GDP for 2021, equivalent to over 5 trillion dollars.  Only be reinvigorating critical worldwide trade and logistics activities, can the economy fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. 

 

Despite this extraordinary, exogenous, event, the human race has battled adversity, and there are many promising opportunities coming out of these challenging times.

 

In addition to being the fastest vaccine ever developed, the most effective options thus far use messenger RNA, a technology that has never been used to generate inoculations before.  This demonstration of scientific innovation is impressive, considering we have never previously developed a vaccine for a novel coronavirus. [REF]

 

If the new SARS-CoV-2 treatments prove efficacious, messenger RNA could be a game changer in terms of vaccine development specifically, and biotechnology in general, ushering in a new wave of medical advancements based on the mRNA platform.  One of the most compelling opportunities is related to HIV, which mutates very quickly.

 

Also, while many businesses, and in some cases, entire industries, have been decimated by the economic fallout from the pandemic, a new wave of entrepreneurial endeavors are already being initiated.  Often, times of financial stress are a harbinger for the next wave of commerce innovation. 

 

In the future, there may be some sort of passport required to confirm inoculation for travel, allowing country access, flight transport, and lodging booking.  This permit could be implemented nation by nation, or globally.  Such protocols will require a delicate balance of safety, civil rights, and humanitarian considerations.

 

It’s difficult to get an exact count for COVID related deaths, especially since the disease is most influential on elderly, who often have comorbidities.  In many ways, this virus is just as risky, and tragic, as major military conflicts of the past.  Down the road, it will be telling to compare the outcome of this pandemic to other times of major global attrition.

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about a level of worldwide collaboration never seen before in history.  The ability for widespread cooperation is promising, as this is likely not the last natural disaster, resource challenge, or international conflict, that will affect the entire planet.

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The first step toward recovery is getting jabs for everyone who wants one.  Then we can start rebuilding society at large.  Granted, there's no shortage of vaccine logistics to figure out, as evidenced by the complex diagram below.  Still, it’s unwise to bet against human ingenuity, and our drive to survive.