Misc. Mental Musings

Dropping Knowledge on the Electoral College

S. G. Lacey

Intro:

This silly institution comes into the public’s perception once every 4 years, and now is the time. What is the Electoral College, why do we have one, and most importantly, is it a noun or a verb?

How was this system for selecting the President conceived by our Founding Fathers several centuries ago? Is it relevant today? Does each Americans’ individual vote carry any weight in the election?

Hopefully we can shed some light on a few of these topics, while avoiding the inevitable partisan overtones that abound these days. Get your notebook out, and pour yourself a Miller High Life. School is in session.

Elector Anecdote:
It’s December 14th, 2020, the first Monday after the second Wednesday of the month, at high noon. The early leaders of this nation were very explicit on some elements of government.

Considering the confusing terminology and the crazy pace of modern-day life, it’s surprising everyone gathered here knew what day, and time, to show up. They must be good at riddles. And be well-motivated.

We’re sitting in the “old” House of the Hall of Representatives at the State Capital in Raleigh, North Carolina. This hallowed space has seen countless legislative proceedings in the past, though it’s clearly gotten some modern technology upgrades, and a few coats of fresh paint, over the years.

The North Carolina Secretary of State is running the show at the wooden podium in the front of the room, which is flanked by two red, white, and blue flags, one representing the state, and the other country.

The feel in the room is tense, not nervous or scared, but excited in anticipation of what is about to occur. The wheels of democracy were set into motion back in the summer, with a key decision point occurring after the November 3rd popular votes were tallied. This assembled group has a lot of responsibility, and obligations, to live up to.

There are 15 of us electors in the room, along with several critical state government personnel to keep an eye on us. The few remain seats are filled with family, reporters, other ancillary staff to help witness and document the proceedings.

I count at least 4 film cameras in the room; apparently this event is being recorded and broadcast live to others throughout the capital city of Raleigh, state of North Carolina, the broader United States, and potentially, the world. A historic event indeed.

In contrast to a traditional corporate business meeting, there are no laptops out, and everyone’s phone is stowed away on silent mode. Instead, the tables are strewn with piles of thick legal books, and printouts of carefully worded speeches. This Electoral College institution will be conducted in the same formal manner as it has been done for centuries in the United States.

After welcoming everyone, both live and virtually, the Secretary takes roll. As she calls our name, each of us stands, confirming attendance. This seems like overkill, since each elector has a name card in front of our assigned position, all of which are occupied.

Once all persons of interest have been verified, we all simultaneously take the required oath that will bind their actions over the next hour. Performed by an esteemed judge from the state’s judicial branch, it feels like I’m a witness in a murder trial.

We have traveled from every corner of the state, with one nominee for each of the 13 Congressional districts in North Carolina, plus two at-large selections to mimic the Senate seats.

I’m representing North Carolina’s 8th District, a region in the center part of the state which spans from the suburbs of Charlotte all the way east to Fayetteville. This is a highly contested area, pitting an influx of Democrats to the city suburbs at both ends, against the wide swath of Republican leaning rural farmland in the middle. Plus, there’s Ft. Bragg, with over 50k personnel stationed there, it’s the largest military base in the United States.

Presumably like others, I was informed via official mail directly from the Governor of North Carolina after the final votes were tallied by the N.C. State Board of Elections a few weeks ago. This confirmed result was exhilarating for me, and no doubt disappointing for my political counterpart, who would be performing my role if her candidate had won.

Most of us electors are very politically active; looking around I recognize several individuals from various convention and fundraising events. However, none of us are allowed to be currently holding any other government office, and have been encouraged to avoid any kickbacks, bribes, or other lobbying activities. Unlikely, these activities are part of political posturing at any level of government. Who’s going to turn down a fancy dinner invite, or a weekend beach house vacation.

When the state conventions earlier this summer turned into virtual events as a result of COVID-19 restrictions, I was unsure how the Electoral College spots would be filled. There was lots of competition for this seat, so I’m lucky to have earned it by utilizing my powerful network of political connections.

Unfortunately, here in North Carolina, I don’t get to have my name printed on the ballot right next the presidential candidate on Election Day like some states. Still, this is closest I’m ever going to get to being a politician.

Glancing around, I examine my fellow electors. Its quite a mixed group, nearly equal men and women covering decent range of adult ages, though racial diversity is somewhat lacking. Attire varies from a formal 3-piece business suit, clearly custom tailored and freshly dry cleaned, to a hand-knit sweater, appropriately colored and adorned with party line imagery.

Regardless of apparel differences, across the board, there’s no shortage of partisan passion from this group, as evidenced by the various buttons, pins, and ribbons on display.

Per tradition, we have to select a president, secretary, and two tellers for our Electoral College. The formal process of nomination, secondary approval, and confirmation for these posts takes 10 tedious minutes, but eventually we have the sufficient organizational structure to proceed with the actual voting.

The newly selected president takes his position at the podium to lead the proceedings, while his three underlings sit at a desk below the podium, facing us remaining electors.

This ceremony likely feels scripted to those in physical attendance, or watching the live fed over the internet. That’s because basically it is. My fellow electors and I already went through a dry run of the protocols earlier this morning, making sure everyone was clear on the run of show, and the role each of us play in it.

The actual voting is about as simple as it likely was for the first Electoral College vote back in 1789. The teller hands out pieces on paper with two lines on them, one for us to clearly print our desired candidates name, the other which we must sign to attest the selection.

I make my decision for the two highest Executive Branch posts in the land on separate sheets. Per the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, I have to identify both the President and VP individually, and they can’t both be from my state. That’s not a problem, North Carolina hasn’t generated a homegrown president since Andrew Johnson the middle of the 19th century.

While this process seems like it’s very abstract and open ended, in reality my selections are essentially predetermined.

There are severe monetary consequences related to our current job. Per North Carolina state law, we are charged $500 for not showing up today, along with forfeiting our ballot. Much more penal is if we don’t cast our vote to match the determine N.C. popular election result, we’re subject to a $10k fine. Apparently, no one has ever been prosecuted for this transgression, but the threat alone is enough to keep me in line.

One of the tellers collects the Presidential ballots, the other the Vice Presidential tallies. These are quickly and silently counted in the front of the room, then confirmed to those in attendance verbally by each teller. Unanimous selections for both positions, matching the political ticket with the highest popular vote count. No surprise there, and no fines incurred.

Next, the Electoral College president asks the N.C. Secretary of State to bring the certification documents forward. Conveniently, and suspiciously, this paperwork has already been printed and laid out, perfectly matching the voting results we cast just minutes before.

Apparently, the results of this ballot were already known. Not surprising, considering the various moral and legal obligations placed on us electors.

In turn, each of us electors approach the table, and sign on the line above our precisely printed name. As I take my turn, seeing the heavy cream-colored paper, with ornate script header, and shiny gold seal on the bottom, the magnitude of this process hits me. My actions here are impacting the course of United States history. It’s a powerful, and exciting, realization.

Signing the 6th, and final, official certificate, along with my electoral colleagues, I think about my civic duty. This time my vote will actually mean something, as I’m representing not just my own ideals, but the will of over 2 million voters in North Carolina, almost 10% of which are in my District. It’s a convoluted electoral process, but the one we’ve got per the U.S. Constitution, and I’m happy to be a part of it.

Conveniently, the local choir has been solicited to attend this event. As we execute our signatures, a chorus of voices from the alcove above belts out a patriotic tune, which rings through the chamber. A fitting nationalistic atmosphere for this important activity. Now we just need some bugles.

As the Secretary of State explained earlier, our electoral votes will be certified, then delivered to Washington, DC by the end of the 2020 calendar year. At a joint session of Congress in early January 2021, the final tally will be confirmed by the siting Vice President, thereby officially confirming the next U.S. President.

The last step of this formal ceremony is to adjourn the meeting. Each elector is obligated to take on one speaking role during the proceedings. I’ve garnered the honor of making the final speech to second the motion for adjournment.

Using the hand microphone, I confirm to everyone in attendance that all 15 Electoral College votes for both presidential positions have been submitted, culminating the business at hand. And just like that, the 58th edition of the North Carolina Electoral College is officially complete.

Posing for a seemingly infinite wave of pictures after completion of the paperwork with my new friends, I’m beaming with excitement, making it easy to smile. We have passed down the desired result, conveying the will of the State’s populous to the Federal Government.

Plus, following party lines can have significant career benefits moving forward, so this may be a turning point in my own career. I’m sure that, like myself, others are equally anxious to get out their phones and inform our constituency that the job is done. This will be a great story to tell to my grandchildren someday.

For those who are visual learners, or really bored, you can watch the video of the full 2016 North Carolina Electoral College proceedings. Extra popcorn is recommended. [REF]

Just The Facts:

As laid out in the original Constitution, Electoral College participants are based on the total number of representatives in Congress. There are currently 538 electors, thus 270 votes are needed for a presidential majority.
- At the first U.S. Congress in 1789, there were 69 representatives from the 10 states who ratified the Constitution. Over time, the legislator count has steadily increased as a result of new states being added to the Union, and population growth, with the current 538 number being formalized and consistent since 1910. [REF]

House of Representatives growth over past 200 years.

Adjustments in state by state electoral representation is based on the changes in population, as dictated by the U.S. Census results taken every 10 years.
- There are 6 states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming) who’s population only earns them one House representative, along with their two Senators, for a total of three Electoral College votes. The District of Columbia is also granted three Electoral College votes, despite not having any Congressional representation. [REF]

2020 U.S. Electoral College voters by state.

Electors are appointed in each state by the political party for each candidate. After the popular vote is tallied, the winning candidates’ electors are notified, and convene in the Electoral College to cast their votes on behalf of the state’s public voting majority.
- Electoral College practices have changed over time, as defined by state to state protocols, and differences in calendar dates, but the general run of events is still executed as defined in the Constitution. For 2020, after the presidential popular vote on November 3rd, the state’s Electoral College votes are placed on December 14th, and submitted to the Federal Government by December 23rd, allowing a U.S. Congress confirmation session on January 6th, 2021, with presidential inauguration two weeks later on January 20th. [REF]

History of the Electoral College:

At the time of the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, no other nation in the world directly elected their national leaders via a public vote. The Framers of this document were worried about a true democracy functioning properly over time.
- In the first presidential election, George Washington unanimously won the presidency, garnering all 69 Electoral College votes, while John Adams won the vice presidency with 34 votes. Initially, political parties were not clearly defined, and candidates did not run together on a defined ticket. [REF]

The original format laid out in the Constitution wasn’t perfect, and has been adjusted by three Constitutional Amendments: 12th = Electors must cast votes for the President and Vice President separately, 20th = Reduced the presidential transition date from March 4th to January 20th to avoid “lame duck” period, 23rd = Washington, D.C. gets three electors.
- During the 1800 election, southern running mates Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr won the Electoral College easily, but tied with 73 votes, causing the final decision to be passed to the House of Representatives. The northern Federalist controlled Congress refused to provide a majority for either person until a compromise was reached 6 days, and 36 ballots later, precipitating the 12th Amendment. [REF]

5 times in history, a presidential candidate has won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College. This result was not specifically envisioned by the Founding Fathers, but definitely feasible based on the format they created.
- America went the entire 20th century without having the popular vote and Electoral College misaligned. However, in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%, but George W. Bush earned 5 more Electoral College tallies. Then, in 2016, Hilary Clinton carried the popular vote by 2.1%, while Donald Trump claimed the Electoral College by 77 ballots. [REF]

Key Perceived Benefits:

The state-based, winner-take-all format of the Electoral College avoids challenges with a potential national recount. Such contention would be a logistical nightmare, and could increase the potential for voter fraud.
- In 1960 presidential election, one of the closes races in history, John F. Kennedy earned just 120k more popular votes than Richard Nixon, a margin of only 0.17%. There were over 170,000 separate voting precincts nationwide at the time, meaning an error of a single vote at each location could have swung the election result. Such a complex recount would have taken months. Instead, JFK was declared the next President on election night, with a clear Electoral College victory of 303 to 219. [REF]

The Electoral College system was put in place because our Government’s Framers worried citizens wouldn’t be able to make informed decisions. Throughout history, the general public is not informed enough to make the right decision, which threatens the stability of a true democratic system, eventually leading to election of a populist president who could become a dictator.
- In early U.S. elections, less than 20% of the eligible population voted. Also, news travelled slowly, and citizens had little knowledge of events and politics beyond their local township. Today, online content offers an unprecedented ability to research political candidates; this scenario provides both the opportunity for increased learning, and the potential for manipulation. Despite the opportunity for a more informed society, voter turnout has held steady between 50% and 70% for most of the 20th century. [REF]

U.S. Presidential election voter turnout over history.

Selecting the President based purely on the popular vote will diminish the impact of smaller states and rural areas in the voting process. Without the Electoral College system, states with larger populations could easily dictate the election result.
- In 1888, Grover Cleveland won the popular vote by nearly one percent, but lost the Electoral College to Benjamin Harrison by a wide margin of 65 electors. This anomaly occurred because Cleveland dominated the popular vote in the southern states by suppressing black voter turnout though disenfranchisement. As a result, this election is often cited as justification for maintaining the current Electoral College format. [REF]

It’s unconstitutional to change the Electoral College system, and goes against the Framer’s viewpoint on achieving an efficient Federalist republic, while maintaining state sovereignty. National polling counts undermine the state by state differences in voter laws like felon rights, absentee status, and mail-in voting.
- The Electoral College keeps elections from becoming even more partisan and polarized, as candidates must appeal to the entire country. In a popular vote scenario, it’s conceivable that a targeted focus on just a few heavily inhabited areas could succeed, while potentially not even being on the ballot in many states. In the current system, winning swing states requires appealing to moderate and independent voters nationwide. [REF]

Objections From Detractors:

The Electoral College discourages people from voting in states where the outcome is known; if every vote counted then turnout may increase. Also, the system is not granular enough to capture demographics differences within a state.
- Including 2020, only 19 times, occurring in only 11 different states, has the popular vote margin of victory been less than 2%. Meanwhile, 38 of the 50 states selected the same political party every election this century. [REF]

Electors are bound by political pledges, and in some cases, state law. This was not the situation that the Founding Fathers envisioned; in today’s system there is essentially no elector independence.
- Electors were originally not required to match their appointed state’s constituency, an act known as a “faithless elector”. However, currently 30 states require electors to confirm the popular vote result, using the threat of legal repercussions. In addition, a recent 2020 Supreme Court ruling confirmed this practice as constitutional, and enforceable. [REF]

The Electoral College system is discriminatory, on both, a historical basis, and, with regards to current U.S. demographics. This inequality is being further exaggerated by recent initiatives to change the U.S. Census counting protocols.
- The Three-Fifths Compromise was a critical part of the original Constitutional ratification, especially with regards to legislative representation, and thus the Electoral College. Allowing southern states to count slaves as 3/5th of a human, thereby increasing their individual state governmental power, while not giving these oppressed individuals any personal rights, still haunts the Electoral College system. Despite Amendments providing, African Americans (15th), and women (19th), the opportunity to vote in subsequent years, there are still undertones of discrimination inherent in this institution. [REF]

Based on the distribution of electors, voters in low population states are given an unfair weighting. With the current two-party political system, there’s more chance that the popular vote won’t align with the Electoral College, due to the high number of votes in populous states, like California and Texas, which have specific party leanings.
- The Electoral College system encourages presidential candidates to adopt a campaign strategy which targets specific states. In recently elections, over 75% of campaign funding, and 90% of physical visits, went to courting only 10 states, as shown in the modified map below from the 2012 race. Such polarization and skewed motivation, consequently leads to more Federal funding in battleground states. [REF]

2012 Presidential election campaign funding and state visits.

Recent Developments And Trends:

The total number of electors cannot change, but the distribution is “reapportioned” by state every 10 years based on demographic changes from the national census per Constitutional mandate.
- As a result, the Electoral College adjustments mirror demographic and population shifts in the country over time. There is a 2-year lag for change, so the 2020 Census results in 2022 reapportionment. This is why the recent questions about citizenship is contentious, since it influences the actual population count, and thus the distribution of both Congressional representatives, and Electoral College participants. [REF]

Electoral College over the past 50 years..

The Electoral College, like many elements of government, favors the party currently in power, so changes to the system are difficult. Constitutional Amendments require a 2/3rd vote in Congress, then a 3/4th majority for state ratification.
- At least 700 amendments have been proposed over time to change, or eliminate, the Electoral College. In 1968, legislation to completely abolish the Electoral College passed the House, but was filibustered in the Senate. [REF]

The National Popular Vote (NPV) Interstate Compact is a work around for the Electoral College which is gaining momentum. States would pledge their electors to the candidate who wins the nationwide result, as opposed to the count in their own state. 16 states, plus the District of Columbia, are already on board, providing 196 of the 270 required votes for this approach to work.
- This new proposal seems to be driven by sentiment from both lawmakers, and the general public. Based on a recent Gallup poll, over 60% of Americans prefer utilizing the popular vote over the Electoral College, with this philosophy finding increasing support in recent years. [REF]

Gallup poll examining American's acceptance of the Electoral College.

The Future, Maybe:

The fate of the Electoral College is unknown, with many political and social factors in play. One can only assume that technology, which has taken over nearly every facet of daily life, will eventually drive change in voting practices throughout the United States. It’s not hard to envision a situation in the near future, where American’s fill out their ballots online, with results tracked live in real time.

In that scenario, it’s unlikely the country’s citizens will be excited about waiting several months for an archaic process, where an arbitrary group of electors gather in person to verify the final tally.

However, it’s understandable that the Founding Fathers didn’t envision the Internet back in 1787, and many of the principals outlined at the Congressional Congress over two centuries ago have withstood the test of time, despite these gentlemen not having a crystal ball. Heck, they didn’t even consider half of Americans, women, voting at all.

As with any change to the national political system, a compromised likely makes the most sense. Since we already have House of Representative districts which are adjusted for demographic changes each decade, one solution would be to simply use these regions as 400+ separate electoral zones, with the two Senator votes per state retained for allocation to each state’s popular vote majority.

This approach could preserve historical context and goals of the past, while acknowledging the new country, and era, that we currently live in. Plus, such an approach isn’t that far of a stretch, since Maine and Nebraska already employ this technique, though they command only 9 electoral votes.

Then again, rational thought, and reasonable compromise, doesn’t exactly align with our current political climate. Who knows what will happen with the Electoral College moving forward? But undoubtably, it will be contentious. James Madison is already rolling in his grave.

Additional Reading:

Amusing read about potential alternative state layouts throughout history, and how these would influence the Electoral College results. [REF]
Long form article advocating abolition of the Electoral College, with lots of interesting numerical data and historical references. [REF]
Laying out an obscure election scenario where a candidate could theoretically win the presidency with just 21.8% of the popular vote. [REF]