Misc. Mental Musings

COVID-19: Unintended Consequences

Bold predictions for the United States societal trajectory over the next decade as a result of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

S. G. Lacey

2020: “White Christmas” Forecasts Are A Guess This Holiday Season.

Thesis:

Weather forecasters have an incredibly difficult job, even in normal times. In recent months, they’ve lost one of their key analysis tools. This doesn’t bode well for future projections.

Meteorologists rely heavily on data taken by commercial airlines, who typically share real-time measurements on useful upper atmospheric metrics like wind speed, temperature, and humidity. These observations provide insight into jet stream characteristics, the critical driver for medium-term forecasts, and modeling of large weather systems.

Unsurprisingly, passenger airplane travel is still down substantially since the March 2020, when the nationwide COVID-19 stay-at-home orders were initiated.

When was the last time you were on a plane? Or anyone you know? Heck, most foreign countries won’t let Americans in even if we do fly there.

Extrapolate this trend across the entire country, and globe. Then consider that most business flight travel is essentially banned until further notice due to employee liability concerns. Not a pretty picture for the airline industry.

With the potential for a second wave of COVID-19 this fall, it’s unlikely that the upcoming holiday air travel will be even half the volume of prior years.

Similar interruptions in commercial flights have occurred before, most notably in 2010, when the Icelandic Eyjafjallajökull volcano filled significant portions of the Earth’s atmosphere with ash, and in the wake of the September 11th, 2001 World Trade Center attacks. However, these events were more regional, and shorter in duration, than the current global travel malaise.

Another complicating factor is the significant reduction in emissions from the COVID-19 economic slowdown, which could affect overall climate change trends moving forward. Climatologists use these aircraft atmospheric measurements as well, so are similarly hampered in their predictions.

2020 has already been a wild year in terms of unique weather phenomenon. Think about all the crazy geological events that have passed across your cellphone news feed recently.

Simultaneous hurricane warnings in the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread forest fires throughout the western half of the country due to extreme drought conditions.

Three violent EF4 tornados ravaging the same swath of Mississippi in a single week. Mid-May snow in New York City, offset by January record breaking 70°F temperatures in Boston.

Damaging derechos in Utah, South Dakota, and Iowa, with virtually no warning for local residents. Who even knows what a derecho is?

With forecasters lacking the key atmospheric data they depend on, and with climate change influencing global weather patterns, don’t bank on accurate daily weather predictions when making your holiday travel plans.

For reference, last winter neither Philadelphia, PA or Washington, DC registered an inch of snow in any storm. Unfortunately, there were no snow sculpture opportunities for the young residents of these prominent Eastern seaboard towns.

We’ll see what this winter has to bring. Just plan to rely on looking out your window, rather than watching the local TV news. At least you can buy a pair of winter gloves online from the cozy comfort of your couch, and they’ll be delivered by the end of the day before the snow piles up.

Corroboration:

At full capacity, the AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay) system coordinates with 43 global airlines, using over 3500 planes, to collect over 800,000 measurements daily. [REF]
There are lots of other crazy weather phenomena which occurred thus far in 2020 for those who are interested. [REF]
Overall weather measurement data sets have fallen by 75% on average this year, and up to 90% in more remote regions, as a result of COVID-19. [REF]
The official WMO (World Meteorological Organization) website has lots of charts and exportable data for those who want to nerd out. [REF]
U.S. domestic passenger air travel for August 2020 is still down over 70% according to TSA data, per the graph below. [REF]

Change in TSA airplane checkpoint travel due to COVID-19.

2021: Don’t Crash On Your Bike, If You’re Lucky Enough To Have One.

Thesis:

Shortages are everywhere. But our adaptable society is getting by.

Toilet paper. We found other soft, disposable solutions. Hand sanitizer. Now produced at your local distillery. Pork. Full tenderloins are back with a vengeance, available for under a dollar per pound at the grocery store. Bicycles. Completely missing in action.

No one saw that supply chain issue coming. How is there a 6-month wait list to buy a bike, or even get one serviced?

It seems like everyone is pedaling around these days. More biking means increased two-wheel traffic, less general skill on the roads, and unfortunately, more accidents. In an era that may not be the best time for an emergency room visit.

COVID-19 will continue to influence nearly every element of health care. People are afraid to visit hospitals, concerned they may contract the virus. Non-life threatening medical and dental surgeries are perpetually being delayed, in an effort to maintain capacity for pandemic patients.

Less hospital traffic seems like a good thing, but actually has profound effects on the health service industry.

Blood donation has been quantifiably impacted by the virus. Between volunteer logistics, social distancing requirements, and general health concerns, the typical steady stream of blood donors in the United States, and worldwide, has been thrown into turmoil. The last national blood donation shortage occurred during the HIV/AIDS outbreak in the mid-1980’s, when scientific confusion and societal misinformation was similarly rampant.

It’s not that people aren’t donating. With work-from-home protocols, it’s debatably easier than ever to carve out an hour in one’s busy schedule for this amenable cause. However, blood drives in company parking lots, high school gymnasiums, and post church service on a Sunday are no longer an option. People now need to make a conscious effort to share the valuable red liquid pulsing through their veins.

Beyond pure volume, there’s the challenge of managing the highly variable influx of blood contributions, which have limited shelf life. Plus, there’s renewed demand for plasma donations from COVID-19 survivors, a small segment of society that have already conquered the virus, and who’s antibodies may unlock the key to an effective vaccine.

Without sufficient blood reserves, doctors are hampered to execute basic surgeries, required transfusions, and other routine medical operations.

Also, there’s a growing shortage of organs for transplants. Automobile accidents are the main source of young, healthy organ donors, the leading cause of death amongst the sub-45-year-old demographic which seem least susceptible to the ravages of COVID-19. Less driving means fewer accidents, and therefore fewer body tissues in the medical queue.

Lastly, many hospitals are on the verge of going bankrupt. Adjusting protocols to accommodate a potential pandemic influx, they sacrificed the predictable throughput that generates a reliable revenue stream. Commercial hospital facilities are challenged, and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future.

This is why you should be careful on your socially distanced outdoor adventures. Especially if the activity involves a rusted, wobbly wheel, loose handlebar, stuck gear, pedal powered device.

If you don’t have a bike, by fall the of 2021 there should be plenty of cheap options on Craigslist. Even if you haven’t used one since you were a kid, don’t worry. As they say, it’s like riding a bike.

Just watch out, the bike paths are crowded these days. And make sure to buy a bike helmet, even though they are in similarly short supply. Ride safe.

Corroboration:

U.S. cycling market sales went over $1 billion in April 2020 for first time ever, nearly doubling revenue from April 2019. [REF]
Official CDC (Centers for Disease Control) website updated daily with detailed data/graphs which estimate the excess deaths nationwide as a result of COVID-19. [REF]
Over 35,000 blood drives were cancelled since March 2020, an avenue which contributes nearly half of the nation’s blood donation reserves. [REF]
An absurd amount of facts and data about driving demographics in the United States. [REF]
The CDC estimates a quarter million people will pass away as a result of COVID-19 by the end of 2020, a bulk of these skewing heavily towards the over 65-year-old demographic. The 2018 breakdown of deaths in the United States by age group and cause is below for reference and extrapolation. [REF]

American's causes of death by age group.

2021

2022: Your “Local” Food Delivery Will Come From A Chain Restaurant.

Thesis:

If it seems like you’ve been cooking more food at home this summer, it’s because, like nearly every American household, you are. Grocery stores are thriving, as everyone becomes a professional bread baker, or BBQ pit master. At least according to their Instagram posts.

However, all this newfound culinary prowess comes at a cost. Restaurants are struggling mightily, with dine-in patrons just now ticking up from non-existent to sparse visitation.

Restaurants historically work on razor thin margins. In the wake of mandatory COVID-19 business closures on March 2020, many restaurants were forced to shutter up. Many are unfortunately gone for good.

Besides tight margins, restaurants also hold little working capital, and have large staff requirements. With reduced seating guidelines moving forward for the foreseeable future, and several months of no business, food service establishments are in big trouble. Outdoor dining has helped over the summer, but this approach will not work in many areas once colder fall weather materializes.

On your next daily walk through the neighborhood, take note of how many shop fronts are closed, and how many retail buildings have for-rent signs on them. It’s a sobering realization.

Closing was not an easy decision for many owners, but there are just too many unknowns for the restaurant business model currently. Online ordering, curbside pick-up, and home delivery are not sufficient to keep revenue up. Often restaurant leases are expensive, commanding high-traffic locations in urban centers. Rising food and labor costs as a result of COVID-19 are another debilitating factor.

Restaurants lost more money in the pandemic thus far than any other U.S. service industry. It’s easy for people to shift retail buying habits online, but eating out is more of a discretionary, experiential activity.

The initial Payroll Protection Plan (PPP), drafted by the Small Business Administration (SBA), and pushed through Congress in April 2020, was designed specifically to help small businesses. However, the format of the loan, requiring owners to take all employees back onto full-time payroll, does not work well for the restaurant industry’s inevitably lumpy traffic patterns, even before the confusion of pandemic service logistics.

Many chain restaurants, with greater geographic diversification, took large sums of PPP money. Meanwhile, smaller, single location eateries were more worried about the potential loan repayment risks.

The lack of guidance from local and national governments on social distancing policies, and reopening requirements, results in too many unknowns. Sadly, closure makes the most entrepreneurial sense in the face of these uncertainties.

Publicly traded chain restaurant companies have much easier access to financial capital, at historically low corporate loan rates. These larger operations also allow for economies of scale on food, labor, and distribution. As a result, there will be significant consolidation on the restaurant industry over the next few years, favoring vertically integrated businesses, and placing a greater emphasis on to-go food orders.

There’s no doubt Saturday date night, or the Wednesday family dinner out, has taken on a different feel this summer.

As people are confined at home, food delivery rates, and quantities, have increased substantially. This trend is likely to continue. There are only so many days in a row a person can eat mushy pasta covered with microwaved tomato sauce from a jar. More powdered parmesan cheese, please.

Ghost kitchens were already springing up even before the COVID-19 pandemic, created to support the burgeoning to-go food wave. These meal preparation facilities can be located in cheaper lease spaces, produce recipes for multiple brands, leverage economies of scale, and incorporate special logistics technology required for effective food delivery.

While it may be tough to determine where your next pepperoni pizza or dozen hot wings are cooked, there’s no doubt society will be eager to get back to their relaxing Friday nights eating off recyclable paper plates, with no dishes in the sink.

Also, plenty of real cooks are anxious to return to work in any manner possible. And don’t worry, the delivery driver will likely still be wearing a mask in 2022. Unless the food arrives via drone drop-off.

Corroboration:

Yelp’s Economic Average (YEA) report is a great barometer for U.S. small business activity. The Q2 2020 edition is particularly telling with regards to COVID-19 economic impacts. [REF]
Tom Colicchio of Top Chef fame is very concerned about the restaurant industry, especially after an anticipated initial euphoric bounce when lockdowns subside. [REF]
The original $350 billion allotted by Congress for the PPP program equated to only $7,755 per business, if every application was approved. [REF]
Major restaurants are already using their existing kitchens for 2nd label recipe development. [REF]
Thousands of business have closed since March 1st, 2020. As shown in the bar chart below, restaurants and retail have been the hardest hit, with over half closed permanently. [REF]

Restaurants and retail closures as a result of COVID-19.

2022

2023: NCAA March Madness Tournament Athletes Will Be Paid.

Thesis:

College athletes are going to be compensated for their efforts in the near future. There’s no escaping this fact. The only questions are when, how much, and by whom.

There are already several pieces of NCAA legislation in the works which would allow participants in college sports to get paid for their own likeness. However, that’s just the tip of a massive, foot-long hot dog of money on an insufficient, soggy bun of remunerations. Eaten at your local university arena of choice, overloaded with unnecessary condiments.

Business models at higher education establishments across the country are changing. Asking students to rack up six figures of student loan debt for the luxury of earning a piece of paper from a prestigious university seems like a stretch. And that’s before the COVID-19 challenges came into play.

Now all classes are online. There’s no socialization on the dorms. Bars are empty, taking the fake ID business down with them. In fact, students are being housed in extended stay motel rooms, rather than at frat houses on campus. It’s like going on vacation with your parents as a kid, then finding out they are leaving you locked in the hotel, while they head to Disneyland on their own.

Asking student athletes, or any rational group of 20-year-olds, to maintain safety protocols in this era of COVID-19 is outside scope of feasibility. College athletes are physical specimens, with peaking hormones and emotions. They crave comradery, competitive banter, and casual sex. Social distancing in this scenario is not sustainable, or fair. Thus, the entire nature of the on-campus experience, especially athletics, will need to be transformed.

As major universities realize this fact, they will be anxious to mitigate their athletic department costs, realistically any expenses, as enrollment drops, forcing reductions in tuition, and other exorbitant ancillary charges to undergraduates.

There’s one group that will be anxious to step in to support the physical, and monetary, needs of student athletes. They are flush with cash, a product of recent decades which have demonstrated the success of capitalism. Corporations.

No one is watching network TV anymore. Why pay money for a few advertisements, which most viewers either fast forward through, or skip to hit the restroom. The real opportunity is to get your corporate marking on during the actual game. The field, the uniforms, the equipment, the scoreboard. All these are becoming more valuable marketing outlets than traditional commercials.

However, the real value of the modern competitor, regardless of sport, league, gender, or race, is their own name and image. In this era of social media dominance, athletes can create their own rabid followings online, and sell themselves much more efficiently than their basic university’s team web page.

Companies know this. Sure, a logo on a sideline banner is fine for the occasional wide-angle TV shot. But having your sponsored athlete show off her new custom branded outfit to a few million followers online is much more compelling, and personal. Corporations are anxious to pay for this opportunity. As soon as it becomes legal in the all-seeing eyes of the NCAA.

There’s another blossoming revenue stream that could help supplement payments to college athletes. Legalized sports betting.

No longer do you have to go to Las Vegas to gamble. Just download an app on your phone, electronically transfer some loot, and bet away. Gambling options used to be limited to picking game winners and final score totals. Now you can wager on individual player stats, year-end award winners, cross-sport head-to-head tallies, and many more obscure items.

As the explosion of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) has shown, viewers love focusing on individual players’ achievements and skills, even in traditional team sports. Imagine throwing $20 on the North Carolina center to make his 7th straight free throw. Or a specific Alabama linebacker to force a turnover on their opponent’s next procession. Live it up, potentially in real time, play by play, in 2023, or sooner.

There’s no doubt conflating payment and gambling is a conflict of interest than needs to be considered, and handled with tact. However, existing systems from other parts of the world can tell us what works, and what doesn’t, with regards to incentivizing impressionable young adults.

These supplemental payment trends for collegiate players will start with football, the most lucrative athletic pursuit for most universities, but quickly transfer to basketball, then other ancillary sports. Smaller schools will join the fray, even if only one or two of their athletes can be marketed.

The line between professional and college competition is already blurring, and may be nearly non-existent in a few years.

Some day in the near future you will be able to buy tokenized shares of your favorite players prior to the NCAA March Madness tournament. That will be the true opportunity for college athletes to monetize their talents, independent of the shackles placed on them by their athletic departments. Ideally, by then COVID-19 will be behind us, and we’ll all be screaming from the bleachers in real time.

Imagine the dollar signs racking up as the point guard leads his team through the bracket; his NBA draft stock rising with each successive victory. He might even earn a little extra cash to purchase a decent car before graduation.

Corroboration:

Good summary of the new NCAA proposal which would allow players to get compensation for their name, image, and likeness. [REF]
Staggering endorsement to salary ratios for some of the highest paid athletes in the world. [REF]
A deep dive into the rapidly growing world of DFS, and how the industry’s $350 million of revenue in 2019 will integrate with the $1.2 billion already generated by online sports gambling despite being legal for just over a year and operating in only 14 states. [REF]
One ambitious NBA athlete is already tokenizing his contract. [REF]
The chart below shows the massive, and expanding, discrepancy between the Top 10 D1 athletic departments’ sports revenue, and the underlying scholarship contributions. They may be able to toss a few more bucks to the athletes responsible for generating this income. [REF]

College athletic department revenue and expenses.

2023

2024: Gas Will Cost $5.00 Per Gallon On Your Summer Road Trip.

Thesis:

Earlier this summer, residents of Oregon and New Jersey got to pump their own gas for the first time in a while. These are the only remaining states with gas station attendants. Apparently, the powers that be deemed filling tanks too much of a sanitation risk. Another bunch of jobs lost to the pandemic.

For a few months in the spring, there were essentially no cars on the roads. However, as trucking supply chains resumed, and cabin fever, in the most real and literal sense, set in, American families took to the interstates with a vengeance.

COVID-19 air travel restrictions have reminded people of a few basics. Getting outside is fun, and most of our beautiful country can be explored via automobile. Families have eschewed the sports arenas, mall complexes, and theme parks for the benefits of the great outdoors.

National park trails are packed with dogs and strollers, local waterways teaming with a menagerie of inflatable devices. How is everyone getting to these destinations? By car.

Automobile transportation will be much more prevalent than air travel for a while, due to the increasing flight costs as the industry consolidates, and lingering concerns about social distancing on planes, even with a viable vaccine.

Unfortunately, gone are the days of loading up the wood-paneled Wagon Queen Family Truckster, and heading off to Walley World.

In the United States, there has been a major purchasing trend change towards SUVs and trucks, rather than minivans and sedans, over the past decade. Though fuel efficiency has improved, these bulky vehicles are still gas-guzzlers.

Also, in an effort to save money amid tightening household finances recently, people are buying more older, less efficient, used vehicles. New automobile emissions standards are being implemented slowly, with Europe leading the charge, but are mainly limited developed countries. Hence the continued need for fossil fuels.

Commodity prices go in cycles, and there’s no natural resource that highlights such volatility more that oil. Especially in this crazy year.

For those who missed it, for one day back in April 2020, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures traded negative. Over $30 per barrel negative.

This value was a temporary anomaly of commodity markets, where physical delivery must be taken, and storage capacity matters as much as the underlying product value. Still, this price shock will have repercussions on gasoline prices in both the short, and long, term.

The crash of oil’s value will lead to a cascade of debt-insolvency closures across the U.S. shale industry. As domestic tight oil wells shut down and OPEC+ aligns, they will regain command of the global crude price. Global demand has grown every year since 2009, and 2020 may just be a temporary blip on the radar in the trend of continued increasing fossil fuel usage worldwide.

Also, there’s no shortage of potential shock factors which could influence oil pricing in upcoming years. Geopolitical challenges plague many of the swing production nations. Continued trade disagreements, or worse, between China and U.S. are likely. Russia could implement some crazy export policy actions at any time, like they always do.

Also, hydrocarbons are used for many other commercial applications, like plastics, rubbers, and synthetic fabrics. Refined gasoline and diesel will need to compete with these alternative uses.

Everyone knows that electric vehicles are the future. This theory is so engrained in our vision of the forthcoming travel that it’s treated as a ubiquitous reality. However, such a large technology shift won’t occur without gasoline prices rising. This fact is counterintuitive, and not understood by the general public.

The only way to drive widespread battery powered automobile adoption is by creating a compelling economic case. Most likely when gasoline, the most ubiquitous form of energy for vehicle travel, gets expensive.

It will take decades to clear the inventory of internal combustion vehicles on the roads. Sure, autonomous driving is coming around, but this will be initiated using tiny, single person vessels for short city trips.

For a while, if you have a big family, you’ll still be piling into the same gas-powered SUV, strapping a tangled mess of gear on the roof rack, and heading off to your camping spot of choice. Just get ready to pay more at the pump in coming years. It’ probably better not to splurge on an RV in that case.

Corroboration:

Commentary on challenges facing U. S. National Parks in the COVID-19 age. [REF]
At the end of 2019, traditional car sales dropped 20% year over year, with SUVs and EVs picking up the slack. [REF]
Background on -$30 oil futures contracts back in April 2020, with projections through 2022. [REF]
In case you didn’t get the National Lampoon Vacation reference, here are instructions for building your own sweet family road trip ride. [REF]
The graph below shows historical inflation adjusted gas price; considering near-term future inflation potential, $5 could be in the cards with a return to the secular highs. [REF]

2024

Inflation adjusted gasoline prices throughout U.S. history.

2025: There’s No Cash In Your Wallet, Which Is Fine.

Thesis:

How many coins do you have in your left pocket right now? What about your oversized purse? Or the sticky center console of your car?

The answer to all three of these questions is likely trending towards none.

In fact, we have an ongoing coin shortage in our country. This is mainly due to reduced circulation of physical money, a result of COVID-19 stay-at-home mandates, combined with virus-related disruptions to the U.S. Mint’s manufacturing schedule.

Sure, coins have been useless for years. They are awkward, inconvenient, and essentially worthless.

What can you buy with 41 cents these days? Basically nothing, even though you hold one of each of the four most prevalent metallic discs in our financial system. As a point of reference for those who like efficiency, the same coinage weight in $100 bills adds up to $2,000, sans rubber band.

The COVID-19 outbreak has brought up concerns about the sanitation of everything. Including the American currency itself. There’s one foolproof solution to keeping physical money clean. Getting rid of it completely.

There are not many areas of our lives that haven’t been changed by technology, specifically digitization. Except the United States’ legal tender.

Younger consumers already use primarily electronic payment modes: credit cards, PayPal, Venmo, Square, etc. The revolution has begun. But this is just the tip of the iceberg, alternate ways to exchange greenbacks, as opposed to a completely new virtual money system.

Government sponsored digital currencies have become increasingly likely in the future. China is already working on a digital Yuan, which may spur on U.S. legislative efforts.

This administration wants to be able to put money directly into people’s hands, and monitor how, what, and, when it’s spent. Classic government intervention, which won’t change regardless of the party in power. Sending money directly to over a quarter billion American citizens is challenging, as highlighted by the drawn-out distribution of the $1,200 per person COVID-19 stimulus checks in the spring of 2020.

A final piece of the virtual money puzzle is the rapidly increasing U.S. debt. A digital dollar system offers opportunity for more control over currency usage, velocity, and potentially inflation.

When faced with a forced pandemic lockdown, violent civil unrest, contentious political climate drama, and workplace salary disruptions, the notional value of the Federal budget is understandably low on most citizens’ list of worries. Still it can’t be ignored as a long-term driver of economic conditions in America.

Congress is willing, and able, to accelerate this digital dollar process. The Libra proposal in 2019 by Facebook, a digital stablecoin valued against a global basket of currencies and commodities, kicked off a deeper government exploration of electronic currency options.

A virtual dollar may not be the worst option moving forward. Your salary could be deposited daily, as opposed to bi-weekly. Your cell phone will be your wallet. Bank transfers, even overseas, become instantaneous. Don’t worry, we’re not in the Weimar Republic, or Waterworld, yet.

Regardless of the motivations, COVID-19 factors have rapidly accelerated the movement towards adoption of a national, or potentially even global, digital currency.

Feel free to keep digging between your couch cushions, or rummaging under your car’s floor mats. These metallic discs will still be worth something, provided you can find someone willing to take them from your grimy paws.

These shiny coins with old presidents’ faces on them may be collector’s items for your grandchildren, though the market will be fully digital by then. Unfortunately, the days of putting a quarter into the joystick manipulated Pac-Mac arcade game, or the oversized gumball machine, are fading away.

Still, a penny saved is a penny earned. You’ll just need a lot of them.

Corroboration:

The U.S. Mint wants you to spend your coins, regardless of their value. [REF]
Very detailed report executed by the Federal Reserve on U.S. consumer payment preferences during the 2018 calendar year with lots of tables. Cash transactions are down 4%, but still used for nearly half of payments under $10, while card transactions increased 7% since 2016. [REF]
Summary of the most recent Congressional activity related to a digital U.S. dollar. [REF]
History of government backed fiat currencies, which last an average of 27 years. [REF]
The U.S. Federal Deficit has exploded this century in the wake of two economic shocks that required, and facilitated, unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, per the graph below. [REF]

2025

U.S. Government tax revenue and federal deficit.

2026: Park Your Car On Solar Panels At The “Mall”.

Thesis:

We have too many malls in the United States. And it didn’t take a pandemic to realize this. Anchor chains like Woolworths, Sears, and J.C. Penney’s have all gone by the wayside well before this recent economic slowdown.

Online purchasing trends are here to stay. It only took a few months of COVID-19 captivity for consumers to realize they can buy four shirts then return the two which look terrible, compare couch prices while sitting on their broken futon, and even have the entire grocery list delivered weekly like clockwork. Professional produce pickers who practice their craft all day are better at finding perfectly ripe avocados anyways.

This shopping center collapse is not surprising, considering the great U. S. of A. has much more retail square footage per capita than any other country in the world. Nearly an order of magnitude more.

The question is what to do with this space. There is demand for new types of covered structures: data centers, socially distanced entertainment venues, fulfilment warehouses, manufacturing facilities being brought back onshore. There are endless possibilities, provided routine building maintenance ensures the former mall’s roof doesn’t leak.

However, even more interesting is what happens to all the vacant parking lots. The term “concrete jungle” has been in our lexicon for over half a century, but increased urbanization is making this description a reality. Why not use this developed, flat land as a value add?

Technology for solar panels is improving quickly, and costs are coming down. Assuming the number of shopping plaza visitors decreases, along with the quantity of cars needed to transport these consumers, this acreage represents a major opportunity for harvesting the sun’s powerful rays.

Exact numbers are tough to come by, but we can use some rough estimates to determine the potential opportunity, and simplify the math. Total nationwide shopping complexes, times parking spaces per lot, times potential square footage of solar panel per spot, times direct sunlight hours per year, times conversion efficiency of the photovoltaic cells, equals.

Drumroll, please. A damn lot of harvestable electricity.

Sure, there are a few snags to this plan. First, at current extraction efficiencies, solar technology is only commercially viable in cities with lots of sun. More importantly, we don’t have a low-cost solar collection system that can withstand the weight of a car. Yet.

Imagine bombing around in a snowplow mid-winter at the Mall Of America in Minnesota, try to clear 6 inches of heavy snow covering a thick layer of ice, without damaging the underlying surface of monocrystalline silicon wafers. Sure, we still have a few technical details to work out.

One intermediate step is to create car ports with strategically angled roofs based on latitude, then cover these with solar panels. This technology is further along, and offers the additional benefit of helping keep vehicles parked underneath cool. However, a renewable energy approach that already has high investment costs becomes even more cost prohibitive when incorporating the robust roof structure required to secure the panels themselves.

Using gravity to support the panels is much more efficient. Once this innovation comes to fruition the sky is the limit, or the ground in this case. Why stop at just outfitting parking lots? There’s another nearly infinite source of flat pavement in this country. The roads themselves.

Who would fund this investment? There are a few options.

If America as a collective is making a true commitment to carbon neutrality, then entrepreneurial types could install the photovoltaic cells at cost, then sell the renewable power to companies who are looking to offset their emissions for carbon neutrality.

Another approach is to nationalize this sustainable power source. Major national energy projects like hydroelectric dams, nuclear reactors, and oil pipelines have all been government initiated and funded in the past.

It may take a few years to figure out the details, but combining federal mandates with capitalistic incentives should do the trick. There are undeniably certain regions of the country where this approach makes more sense initially. They don’t call it the Sun Belt for fun.

Enjoy your visit to the mall in 2026. It’s likely you’ll be parking your car, stylishly equipped with solar paneled roof, on top of a massive photovoltaic collection panel parking lot, then opening up your sun ray collecting umbrella for the walk inside. Especially if you live in Arizona.

The food court will still be there, but it’s more likely you’ll be picking up packages you already ordered online rather than perusing stores. And you may be sitting next to few sweaty operators taking a break from robotic forklift duty. Just don’t plan on swinging by the GNC booth for your vitamin allotment.

Corroboration:

Summary of the 2020 retail bankruptcy breakdown as a result of COVID-19; the list reads like a who’s-who of former anchor store mall tenants. [REF]
Detailed analytics breakdown of solar panel technology which describes the various numerical factors which go into overall system efficiency. [REF]
Parking lots are very inefficient from a space and cost standpoint, regardless of city size. [REF]
Solar roads are already a thing, they just need to be refined. [REF]
The bar chart below shows just how far out of whack the U.S. retail landscape is with other developed countries; even with the 2020 mall closures we’ve still got a long way to go. [REF]

2026

2027: Ride The High-Speed Rail Connecting Los Angeles And Las Vegas.

Thesis:

The transportation infrastructure in the United States in terrible. Huge potholes, rusty bridges, missing signage.

Much smaller countries throughout the world have vastly better public transit systems. Anyone who has spent time traveling in Europe or Asia knows what North America is missing out on. It’s high time for a high-speed rail installation in the U.S.

The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be slow, especially in certain industry sectors. Work-from-home seems to be a durable shift in behavior, as a high percentage of jobs can be done remotely online. But not physical labor. We need to create new roles for trades workers displaced in this dynamically shifting employment landscape.

The United States government doesn’t seem to have any concerns spending money, on either the monetary or fiscal side, to support markets and the economy. As part of the continuing stimulus will be a large infrastructure bill. In this world of polarized politics, this is one of the few topics that both parties can align on, regardless of the 2020 election outcome.

When done right, nationwide infrastructure programs can create tons of jobs, stimulate the economy, and bring about beneficial change that lasts for decades.

Think about Roosevelt’s New Deal, which created an alphabet soup of public works organizations who were responsible for making critical transportation improvements like the Lincoln Tunnel, Golden Gate Bridge, LaGuardia Airport, and Pennsylvania Railroad electrification. Or Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System, which is still the backbone for trucking freight movement across our vast nation.

What new infrastructure projects could fill a pending transit need, and put idle construction personnel to work?

The 2028 Summer Olympics are being hosted by Los Angeles, CA. This is an opportunity to demonstrate the grandeur and power of America on the world stage. Having the fancy new high-speed rail working by then would be useful, not just as a people mover, but also as a statement of engineering prowess. We always like to brag.

Unfortunately, the state of California is broke, so will they will need federal government support. Selecting Las Vegas as the other terminus, rather that San Francisco, makes this a national endeavor. That means national funding.

Variations of this project have been discussed since the turn of this century. The further the train’s installation gets pushed out; the better rail technology gets. Steam locomotion, high-tensile electric wires, magnetic levitation, nuclear fission powered. Who knows what train speeds and levels are comfort may present themselves in the future? However, as soon as humankind figures out teleportation, this travel mode will be obsolete. The time is now.

This route should have been built years ago to appease the multitude of gamblers in Southern California. Realistically, our advanced society should already have bullet train rail transport between major cities on both the East and West Coast.

Los Angeles Olympic bid was accepted by the International Athletic Committee (IOC) in 2017. The clock is ticking, but Los Angeles is in a better situation that most other recent Olympic hosts from a venue and lodging perspective. Plus, the high-speed train plan is again gaining momentum, this time combining public and private sector investment dollars. Choo-choo.

There are likely lots of more beneficial national infrastructure programs that government resources will need to be focused on over the next decade, which can have a longer lasting impact than a single express rail line.

Improved road marking systems to allow for autonomous driving seems like an obvious play. Supporting towers and wires for full 5G wireless rollout is essential to support the real time communication needs of self-driving vehicles. Plus, think about how many gas stations there are nationally, and how much labor and materials it will take to install charging docks at every one of these. Some electricians are going to be employed for quite a while.

This infrastructure project will be a long game play, but could put us back on the forefront of global travel. As opposed to the back of the bus, literally, which is where we currently rank.

But for the upcoming Olympics, how can we not show off two of our most iconic cities to the world? Los Angeles, the City of Angels, full of palm trees and Hollywood personalities. Las Vegas, in all its gaudy, tacky glory of gambling, boozing, and assorted debauchery.

The last Summer Olympics hosted in Los Angeles were epic for the United States from both a athletic performance and geopolitical statement standpoint. Hopefully we can repeat the experience. Rather than going blind into the Olympic foreign visitor rush, it might be prudent to get the rail system up and running for a trial run around Thanksgiving 2027.

A perfect duo of towns, connected by a ride of just over an hour, to demonstrate America’s uniqueness to the globe. As long as COVID-19 gets sorted out, and project funding comes through, this scheme could actually work.

Corroboration:

Full breakdown of New Deal activities under FDR. The number of three-letter acronyms organizations he created at this time which are still influential is impressive: PWA, TVA, FHA, SEC, FCC, SSA. [REF]
Promising info on the proposed 170-mile high speed rail line from L.A. to Vegas. [REF]
Very detailed article on the economics of hosting the Olympics. Recent host cities are deeply indebted, with loan balances which may decades to pay off. [REF]
Hilarious reminiscing on the 1984 L.A. Olympics complete with McDonald’s, Carl Lewis, and a smog asphyxiated bald eagle. Can’t wait to see what the 2028 festivities in Los Angeles bring. [REF]
The graph below shows how the cost of hosting the Olympics has increased rapidly in recent years. Not surprisingly, city submissions have evaporated, and a bid system overhaul is needed. [REF]

2027

Actual cost for hosting summer and winter Olympics since 1960.

2028: The Elected President Will Be From A New Political Party.

Thesis:

A 3rd political party will arise soon in America, becoming competitive nationally by the 2028 presidential election. This simple statement seems either obvious, or absurd, depending on your current point of view.

Let’s think through a few of the key driving factors, hopefully with a rational and open mind.

The nation is already politically polarized as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic response, and the resulting civil unrest across the country. Such times of stress have been catalysts for societal change in the past.

It’s hard to claim that the current voting system in the United States, requiring mandatory in-person participation, with convoluted routing through the Electoral College, is an optimal approach. Improved voting procedures in the future could offer greater access, revealing the general public’s true sentiment.

The ability to motivate and manipulate people online has never been easier. This is both a blessing and a curse when it comes to political posturing. If a new contingent can execute an influential social media campaign, with honest commentary, and transparent policies, they will attract followers, then the power of networking compounds from there.

In terms of demographics, there’s a huge opportunity to draw in younger voters, who typically don’t participate in our archaic electoral system. As the last of the Silent Generation passes away, sheer population numbers show the Millennial demographic will wield greater power in the democratic process, provided they choose to.

Lastly, there’s a combination of unaddressed values which have revealed themselves, as the Democratic and Republican parties become more polarized in their battle for power. Most notable are fiscally responsibility, combined with societal acceptance and support, mixing in a dose of rational humility.

The election of 2020 will be a turning point, splintering the existing Democratic and Republican parties into factions. Recent voter polling, which should be taken with a 10-pound bag of rock salt, shows that a quarter of Americans don’t feel that either party’s candidate will be an effective President. This is one of the highest negative ratings in history, continuing a trend that has been in place over the last few election cycles.

Who knows what the 2020 presidential election result will be, or how long it takes to determine the outcome? But Americans as a group are clearly reaching a tipping point, and we’re now on the cusp of the next major political landscape shift.

There’s plenty of historical context for political parties changing in the United States over time. In 4 instances since 1900, a 3rd candidate has received over 13% of the Presidential popular vote, though never won. In the earlier era of our nation’s history, multiple other political parties like the Federalist, Whig, and American were often relevant.

This change will start with Congress representatives in certain demographically relevant regions of the country, where the desire to shift from the status quo is most acute. The average age of a U.S. Senator currently is 62, having been in their position for over 10 years. People aren’t living forever, yet, so younger leaders who come into focus soon will be free from the dogmatism of old party alliances.

Other parts of the world were already experiencing societal unrest and clamoring for political change even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The “Yellow Vest” movement for economic justice in France, Hong Kong’s rejection of Chinese imperialism, and uprisings throughout Chile in the wake of widespread poverty, are just a few examples we should take heed of before our nation completely tears itself apart.

In the next few United States elections, political party dynamics, policies, and constituents will be changing rapidly. Interesting times indeed.

Now if the government can just figure out how to move voting online, we’ll really be making progress. If citizens could use their cell phones, then elector participation would increase substantially, potentially enabling the democratic process our founding fathers envisioned.

Corroboration:

U.S. Presidential election results over time; it’s interesting to examine how the party names and voting percentages have changed throughout history. [REF]
Poll results showing 25% of voters feel than neither 2020 presidential candidate would be good in office. [REF]
There’s no shortage of protesting throughout the world right now. [REF]
Comprehensive report on the reasons why we can’t safely vote online yet; with some effort hopefully these security concerns can be solved by 2028. [REF]
The graph below shows the breakdown on Republican and Democratic votes by age group in the 2016 election, as well as what percentage of the total vote each age cohort represented. [REF]

2028

Voter turnout by age adn candidate in the 2016 U.S. Presidential election.

2029: Your Cul-De-Sac Neighbor Will Be A Single Child, With A Dog.

Thesis:

Some married couples had a lot of free time in 2020. Others were completely overwhelmed.

The two variables dictating the experience were, if you were able to work from home, and if you had kids. This distinction lead to a clear bifurcation in physical activity, and mental sanity, during the mandatory COVID-19 pandemic lockdown.

Parents with kids don’t want any more for now. Meanwhile, young couples trapped in their residence together had more free time to explore the options.

Nine months later, in early 2021, the maternity wards at hospitals start to become inundated with expectant first-time parents. No worries with capacity, since there’s been an equivalent, if not greater, drop-off in births from existing families.

The first child excitement can quickly wain, especially in the challenging economy over the next few years. Sleepless nights, daycare costs, extra food bills; all these factors conspire. The trend of fewer births during a recession is quite predicable. The single child decision becomes an easy one.

The best way to appease an only child is with a pet, for those who hadn’t already gotten a dog as part of the family starter pack. The only question now is where to live with this perfect household.

The countryside of course, where a mortgage at near zero percent interest rates can buy a few acres of land. Not too far out of town though, so the benefits of the organic grocery story, communal playground complex, and bark-mulch covered dog park can be exploited.

This hypothetical scenario may not be far from the actual trajectory for many aspiring families over the next decade. It all comes down to existing demographics, combined with societal trends which have been accelerated by COVID-19.

The Millennial generation, the largest cohort in America, is coming of age in 2020, and starting household formation, though that term may have a different connotation than when their Baby Boomer parents were raising them.

Also, women in the United States are having their first child later, a product of improving workplace equality, which will inevitably continue in this era of social justice. However, a mandatory year-long break from work can entice engrained maternal tendencies.

Pets were having a great run of adoption even before the pandemic, with dog ownership up over 30 percent since 2000. Lenient companion animal policies, and adorable new hybrid breeds, have only accelerated this trend.

Moving to the suburbs is another phenomenon in the post COVID world. Continued ability to work from home, closure of many small businesses in cities, changes to daycare and schooling policies; all these factors conspire to make rural family living an enticing proposition.

Nobody knows that the future holds, especially in this era of craziness. However, everything settles out over time, so at the end of the decade make sure to drive safe in your local neighborhood.

There will be a lot of activity out on the streets, with all those second graders bombing around on hover bikes. Single children, and pets, are usually spoiled, so keep an eye out for abandoned toys in the road.

Corroboration:

Interesting findings on how household sex life has changed during the COVID-19 lockdown, read at your own risk. [REF]
Commentary on the likelihood of a baby bust due to the pandemic. This theory is based on historical context from other national economic shocks, which suggest there could be up to a half million fewer babies born in 2020. [REF]
Trends in U.S. pet ownership in the through 2017. 68% of households had at least one pet, with Gen X and Millennials accounting for two-thirds of pet possession. [REF]
The U.S. housing market is hot right now, regardless of the challenges of virtual showings. [REF]
Historical data on birth rates in America dating back to 1900, with discussion on what cause baby booms and droughts. [REF]

2029

American trends in baby births since 1900.

2030: Your Heirs Appreciate Their Generous Inheritance.

Thesis:

The COVID-19 pandemic is now a decade old, and mostly in the rearview mirror. There are lingering effects on daily social interaction, but robust vaccines and instant testing systems have controlled the SARS-CoV-2 virus strain. Health response initiatives put in place even helped avoid a new pandemic breakout of XYZ-27 virus a few years back through improved preparedness.

By now, we can even travel to foreign countries, assuming they are still interested in letting us Americans visit, considering the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

The cost of COVID-19 to the United States was high, not just in terms of deaths, but also societal stress. Many noticeable changes have occurred, and many aspects of life will never return to pre-2020 ways.

Overall, half a million Americans died in the first year of the outbreak, with individuals over 60 years of age making up the vast majority of the deceased. Many humans went before their time, but the long-term consequences could have been much worse. And their financial legacies live on.

This elderly skew to the fatality distribution of the COVID-19 outbreak caused an unexpected resource transfer which is still evident. While sad and tragic at the time, the shift of wealth from the old to the young has provided promise, and potential, a decade later.

The SECURE Act passed by Congress at the end of 2019, just before the pandemic outbreak, changed the law so that inherited retirement accounts need to be withdrawn within 10 years after death. This constitutes a massive amount of transferred wealth from Baby Boomers to Millennials, many of whom planned on living longer prior to the virus complications.

The timing is fortuitous. Millennials are now growing up, starting families, and spending more. These inheritance sums have been used for first home mortgages, at very low interest rates, and to pay off exorbitant student loan debts. Maybe they even bought a sports car or two as part of their own mid-life crisis.

In 2030, the modal American is a 39-year-old married white woman with a college degree, who works a middle-income job to support two kids, while living in a nice suburban house. Her current level of economic status and career achievement would not be possible without the transfer of wealth from her parents, who may have passed away as a result of COVID-19.

It’s not all rainbows and unicorns for the Millennial generation though.

While the Baby Boomers benefited from a strong and stable job market through their peak earning years of the 1990s and 2000s, Millennials many not be as fortunate due to tougher economic conditions, more rapidly changing skill requirements, and even the increase in robotic automation. Also, the wealth is highly concentrated amongst a privileged group of the elderly, so the windfall could be a force to further exaggerate the country’s income inequality.

Also, any time there’s money exchanging hands, the financial industry tries to stick their fingers in the pie. Don’t expect this stint to be any different, especially as many of the departed may not have had time to get their financial house in order in terms of wills, trusts, and estate documents, due to the rapid onset of the virus pandemic.

Has the polarity between these age groups eased? Considering all the “OK Boomer” memes of the past, a decade later the Millennials are now quite happy about their parents’ saving habits, and market gains. Another generation gets to appreciate the joys of home ownership, family creation, and the American dream.

Despite menial investment returns over the past ten years, by 2030 many Millennials now find themselves in solid economic standing. At least they’ll have some extra cash to finish their basement, just in case the next generation wants to live down there for a while. It’s all part of the circle of life.

Corroboration:

Frequently updated composite analysis combining 13 different COVID-19 pandemic spread models which shows the potential range of American deaths in the short term. [REF]
Story outlining the basics of the upcoming “Great Wealth Transfer” from Baby Boomers to Millennials. [REF]
Explanation of the SECURE Act with different scenarios to demonstrate the retirement planning changes. [REF]
The modal American is a neat concept first postulated on an NPR Planet Money podcast. [REF]
The bar graph below breaks down wealth by the generally accepted generational buckets. The total wealth of the Baby Boomers is striking at 10X the Millennials currently, a result of simultaneously booming equity, bond, and real estate markets from 1980 – 2020. [REF]

2030

Breakdown of American's wealth by generation.